Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/2004Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/2147Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1413Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 160 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 095
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 094/094/094
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 009/012-008/008-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/30