Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 352 km/s at 01/2336Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/2127Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 149 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 068
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10