Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 01/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1135Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1427Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 067
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 006/005-007/008-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/35
Minor Storm 01/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/50