Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 551 km/s at 02/1438Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 01/2142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 02/0718Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Jul, 05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jul 071
Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Jul 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  014/019-011/011-007/007

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/10
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/40/20