Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 02/1530Z from Region 2376 (N13E32). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 02/0032Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5446 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul

Class M    10/10/10

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Jul 114

Predicted   03 Jul-05 Jul 115/115/115

90 Day Mean        02 Jul 124

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul  006/005

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul  005/005

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul  006/005-008/008-017/025

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/25/35

Minor Storm           01/05/25

Major-severe storm    01/01/05

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/10

Minor Storm           20/30/25

Major-severe storm    10/30/55