Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
02/1453Z from Region 2100 (N10W14). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul,
05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 337 km/s at
02/1935Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jul, 04 Jul, 05
Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 169
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 175/180/180
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05