Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 183 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
02/1749Z from Region 1785 (S11E62). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (03 Jul, 04 Jul)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (05 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 498 km/s at
01/2136Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4429 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Jul), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (04 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jul 114
Predicted 03 Jul-05 Jul 115/115/110
90 Day Mean 02 Jul 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jul 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jul 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jul-05 Jul 005/005-007/008-016/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jul-05 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/40
Minor Storm 01/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/60