Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 02/0322Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 573 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Jan, 05 Jan) and quiet levels on day two (04 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 082
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 080/080/078
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 008/008-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/25