Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (03 Jan, 04 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (05 Jan).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 475 km/s at 01/2308Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/1932Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1258Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 608 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Jan 073
Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 073/073/073
90 Day Mean        02 Jan 080

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  011/014-017/024-022/028

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/40
Minor Storm           15/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/65/65