Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
January 2, 2015
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/1948Z from Region 2256 (S08W48). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at 02/0923Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 02/1510Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1725Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2019 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and three (03 Jan, 05 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (04 Jan).

 

III.  Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Jan 146

Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 145/145/150

90 Day Mean        02 Jan 156

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  007/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan  009/012

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  012/015-011/015-012/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/30/30

Minor Storm           15/15/15

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    40/40/40

SpaceRef staff editor.