Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
02/0233Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04
Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 666 km/s at 02/2059Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2155Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0152Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1780
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jan, 04 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 161
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 165/170/170
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 011/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 25/20/05