Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 January 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 335 km/s at
02/1105Z. Total IMF reached 5.5 nT at 02/1339Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4.6 nT at 02/1110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels for the next three days (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jan 119
Predicted 03 Jan-05 Jan 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 02 Jan 118

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jan 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan-05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05