Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 01/2236Z from Region 2939 (S15E47). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 01/2221Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 01/2259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 01/2210Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1416 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (03 Feb, 05 Feb) and quiet levels on day two (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05
Feb).

III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 128
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 009/010-006/006-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/30
Major-severe storm 30/15/35