Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 564 km/s at 02/1627Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 02/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 02/0158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 350 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 073
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 009/010-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/10