Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 499 km/s at 02/0117Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0437Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 361 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 072
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10