Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 02/0015Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17975 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Feb 075
Predicted   03 Feb-05 Feb 075/074/074
90 Day Mean        02 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb  019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb  017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb  012/016-012/014-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/35/30
Major-severe storm    35/35/25