- Status Report
- Jan 26, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 February 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb, 05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 755 km/s at 02/0015Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0611Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 17975 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and unsettled levels on day three (05 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 075
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 075/074/074
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 019/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/016-012/014-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 35/35/25