Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 33 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/2126Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (03 Feb, 04 Feb) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (05 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 783 km/s at 02/0546Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/0220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 02/0229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 752 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Feb, 05 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb
Class M 40/30/20
Class X 05/05/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 140
Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 135/130/125
90 Day Mean 02 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 023/028
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 012/015-010/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb-05 Feb