Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 01/2108Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1623Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2920 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 087
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 086/084/084
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 013/014-010/010-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/30
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/35/40