Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 01/2320Z from Region 2786 (S17W27). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 454 km/s at 01/0313Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/1613Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/2102Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 02/0620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1529 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 105
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10