- Press Release
- Sep 28, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 359 km/s at 02/0001Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 02/0139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 249 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 070
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10