Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 02/1907Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1116Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 069
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  011/012-008/010-011/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/35