Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 01/2142Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/0917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1513Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 184 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Dec), quiet to major storm levels on day two (04 Dec) and active to major storm levels on day three (05 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 072
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 079

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  006/005-022/032-029/048

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/30
Minor Storm           01/35/40
Major-severe storm    01/20/20
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/75/79