Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 02/0446Z from Region 2458 (N11W66). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (03 Dec, 04 Dec) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (05 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 507 km/s at 01/2123Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2248Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1420 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (03 Dec, 05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 095
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 006/005-008/008-007/006

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/20