Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 02/1555Z from Region 2222 (S19W10). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 648 km/s at 02/0259Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/2144Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 168
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
