Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 01/2229Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 02/1845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 02/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 578 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet levels on day two (04 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 075
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 010/012-005/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/10/20
Minor Storm 10/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/15/25