Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug, 04 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 358 km/s at 01/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (04 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 072
Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 073/073/071
90 Day Mean 01 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 010/014-008/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug-04 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25