Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast:

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 02/0742Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 067
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 006/005-011/012-018/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor Storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/55