Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 02/0316Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 02/0516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/0016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 325 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Aug 070
Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug 070/072/072
90 Day Mean        02 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  007/008-008/010-010/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/30/30