- Status Report
- Feb 5, 2023
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 01/2121Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 02/0318Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/1309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2755 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (03 Aug), quiet to major storm levels on day two (04 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 074
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 075/078/078
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 010/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 006/005-017/025-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/35/25
Major-severe storm 01/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/80/65