Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 430 km/s at 31/0524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1110 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Aug), unsettled to major storm levels on day two (02 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 072
Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 31 Jul 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 007/008-020/032-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/35
Minor Storm 10/30/25
Major-severe storm 01/20/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/05/10
Minor Storm 30/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/65/55