Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
02/1328Z from Region 2132 (S19E32). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
510 km/s at 02/1332Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/2112Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 02/1353Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Aug, 05 Aug). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (05
Aug).

III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 05/05/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Aug 156
Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 150/145/145
90 Day Mean 02 Aug 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 010/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 014/016-010/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/40/25