Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 02/1744Z from Region 2975 (N15W78). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (03 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 02/0342Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 02/0042Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/0102Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32 pfu at 02/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross threshold on day one (03 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 70/35/25
Class X 25/05/01
Proton 90/25/05
PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 143
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 130/120/115
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 012/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 011/015-007/010-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/20
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/25
Major-severe storm 55/40/30
