Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 02/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 071
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 071/071/070
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 007/008-007/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/30/25