Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 447 km/s at 02/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/1904Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 196 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 071
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 071/071/070
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  007/008-007/010-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/30/25