Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 479 km/s at 02/0525Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/2009Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2277 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (03 Apr, 04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Apr 068
Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        02 Apr 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    10/10/25