Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 93 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Apr, 04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 516 km/s at 02/2011Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 02/1406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 02/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 625 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (03 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (05 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 082
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 082/082/078
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 099

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 015/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 015/018-008/008-013/016

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/35
Minor Storm 25/05/20
Major-severe storm 05/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 55/25/55