Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2015

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 02/0534Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (03 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 481 km/s at 02/0839Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/2231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 02/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 140 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (03 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (04 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

Class M    20/25/25

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Apr 121

Predicted   03 Apr-05 Apr 135/125/125

90 Day Mean        02 Apr 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr  008/010

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr  009/011

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr  014/020-012/015-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                35/30/25

Minor Storm           10/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                20/15/15

Minor Storm           30/20/20

Major-severe storm    25/30/25