Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 April 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 92 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (03 – 05 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at
01/2154Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 02/1634Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/1634Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5166 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Apr,
04 Apr, 05 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 122
Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 02 Apr 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 009/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr-05 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25