Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 18/2218Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 778 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Sep, 21 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 067
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 067

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  004/005-004/005-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/20