Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/0145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8464 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Sep, 21 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Sep 068
Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean        19 Sep 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep  007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-005/005-013/016

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/35
Minor Storm           01/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/50