- Press Release
- Nov 29, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one and two (20 Sep, 21 Sep) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 579 km/s at 18/2302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 34879 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (22 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 071
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 072/073/072
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 021/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20