Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
19/1832Z from Region 2171 (S09E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Sep,
21 Sep, 22 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 559 km/s at 19/1850Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 19/0805Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 19/1530Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (22
Sep).

III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Sep 122
Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean 19 Sep 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 015/018-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/10
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/15
Major-severe storm 50/20/15