Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 424 km/s at 19/1302Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 18/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 19/1558Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 198 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (22 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 076
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 076/076/078
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 010/012-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/30/30