Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on day one (20 Oct) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 19/2100Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/1546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 19/1452Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38618 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Oct, 22 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Oct 073
Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct 074/078/082
90 Day Mean        19 Oct 081

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  008/008-007/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/15/30
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/20/45