Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 654 km/s at 19/0158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 32688 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Oct, 21 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (22 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 077
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 078/078/080
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 008/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 005/005-005/005-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/35