Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 19, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 19/1727Z from Region 2436 (N09E44). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 479 km/s at 18/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 332 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 45/45/45
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 124
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 015/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 10/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/25

SpaceRef staff editor.