Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
19/0503Z from Region 2192 (S13E43). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
513 km/s at 19/0426Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1354Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1741Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Oct,
21 Oct, 22 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 173
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 175/180/180
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 010/012-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/40/40
