Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0934Z from Region 1861 (S07W91). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20
Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 382 km/s at
19/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3270 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 133
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 125/120/115
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/005-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/25/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/20