Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 371 km/s at 19/0153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (20 Nov, 22 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (21 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 069
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 012/016-015/020-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/40/30
Minor Storm 20/25/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/60/40