Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 18/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 19/1343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 19/1240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6652 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Nov) and active to minor storm levels on day three (22 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 077
Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 076/078/082
90 Day Mean 19 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 012/015-008/008-025/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/35
Minor Storm 05/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/15